If it's a vaccine race, then who is winning (on handicap)?

Is it a handicap race?

It’s intriguing watching vaccine leaderboards evolve as the Australian government provides initial releases of COVID-19 vaccine uptake rates.

As initial results trickle in, Tasmania has been heralded for leading the race.

This got me thinking about how much of their lead is due to the handicap starting system employed in the rollout - with older populations and other high-risk groups quite rightly receiving priority access to vaccines.

Perhaps, as with the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race, there should be line honours and handicap winners awarded?

Radically different age distributions across states and territories are obvious from Australian Government published reports. The Tasmania population pyramid shows a vastly higher proportion of older people compared to other states — especially the Northern Territory.

Excerpt from COVID-19 vaccine rollout update – 15 August 2021 https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-15-august-2021

With all apologies to Tasmania, a quick age standardisation of the data drops the Apple Isle from gold into bronze medal position. The Northern Territory becomes the leader on handicap, with over 32 per cent fully vaccinated. The Australian Capital Territory takes the silver.

It will be fascinating to see how the race pans out over coming weeks, particularly as supply challenges become a thing of the past and true demand become apparent. This is a contest where speed matters and we should be cheering each state and territory over the finish line.

Crude and aged standardised State and Territory rates of the proportion of the population fully vaccined - 15 August 2021